Here goes nothing…
1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Yep. I know you all are surprised that I’m taking a chance with this one. But in all seriousness, Jim Irsay has already said he plans on taking Luck with this pick and I can’t think of any reason why he would say that and then not do it. As for Luck’s pros and cons… you’ve heard it all before. He’s the most polished quarterback prospect to come along since John Elway (who was also taken by the Colts before his rights were traded to Denver because he pulled an Eli).
2. St. Louis Rams – Matt Kalil, OT, Southern Cal
There has been lots of talk about the Rams unloading Sam Bradford and moving the franchise in a different direction but I just can’t see that happening. One because it’s stupid move but also because his contract all but makes that impossible. So, the next best thing is to keep him healthy which is what Kalil would assist with. Another receiving target would be a welcome addition later on as well.
3. Minnesota Vikings – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
Kalil would be nice if the Rams pass on him, but Blackmon fits in huge hole as well. The Viking offense was putrid this past season. If Ponder is going to succeed in Minnesota he is going to need some weapons in the passing game and Blackmon is a great one. Not only is he an elite receiver, but his presence will make those around him better because of the attention the defense is going to have to give him. A cornerback like Morris Claiborne could be possible as well… that is if the Vikings don’t trade out of this pick so some team can get RGIII before the Browns can get him…
4. Cleveland Browns – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
I’m not going to include trades in my mock drafts, so RGIII lands here! Colt McCoy is a great kid (and still looks like he’s 12) but he is not an NFL quarterback. Griffin reminds me a lot of a younger Donovan McNabb and I think he could succeed in the Browns offense. If some other team moves up into the third slot to grab Griffin then a corner like Claiborne could be possible as they look for a starter opposite Joe Haden. Or maybe Blackmon if he’s available.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Guess what. Aqib Talib, who had MAJOR character issues coming out of college, is going to end up going to jail. Shock. And the ageless Ronde Barber will probably end up retiring. So, this one is an absolute no-brainer for me. If Claiborne isn’t available then Dre Kirkpatrick should be the pick. In fact, I think the Bucs might consider taking another corner in the second round, that’s how much help they need in the secondary.
6. Washington Redskins – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Yeah. I really don’t expect the Redskins to be picking in this slot and if they are it’s extremely difficult to guess what they would do. Richardson has the skills to warrant this selection and he would fill a hole, as the Redskins ended the season near the bottom of the league in rushing, but would Mike Shanahan take a back in the first round? I dunno. But as I said at the beginning, I fully expect Washington to make a trade to jump up and get Griffin. If they can’t do that look for them to actively pursue Peyton Manning.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
For years the Jaguars have needed help on the defensive front and while they have addressed it from time to time, this pick is still necessary. With all the young quarterbacks in the division, the Jaguars can’t afford to not have an elite pass rusher, which is what Coples would be. He has tremendous size, great athleticism, a good motor and one of the largest brands you will ever see. Seriously… every time I look at his arm I’m amazed.
8. Carolina Panthers – Devin Still, DT, Penn State
The Panthers should be looking to pickup the best defensive player available here after finishing 24th against the pass and 25th against the rush. Still would be an immediate upgrade in the center of the defense offering a great combination of size and athleticism. While injuries have hampered his production he had a tremendous senior season with 17 TFL. A corner like Kirkpatrick could be very possible here, but I like the defensive line pick a bit more.
9. Miami Dolphins – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
Marc Colombo needs to be replaced. It’s pretty much as simple as that. The only real decision here is which tackle fits the Dolphins better, Martin or Riley Reiff (Iowa). No matter which one is selected, it will require them moving to the right side since Jake Long has a pretty good grip on the left tackle spot. Both are tremendous run blockers, but I think Martin is a little more versatile which is why I have him in this spot.
10. Buffalo Bills – Nick Perry, DE/OLB, Southern Cal
The Bills were near the bottom of the league in sacks and desperately need a spark off the edge. Perry had an outstanding end to his Junior year with the Trojans. I believe he will light it up at the Combine and ride that performance into a top 10 selection in April. He has decent size for a rush linebacker and an amazing first step. He’s still a work in progress and with some good coaching he could end up being one of the steals of the draft. Another rush linebacker like Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) could be possible as well as an offensive tackle like Reiff.
Some possible scenarios to think about as the off-season approaches:
1. St. Louis needs a big time receiver to go with their big time (and expensive) quarterback. Throwing a handful of waived receivers at the wall to see who sticks hasn’t worked. That leaves Kalil for the Vikings as you mentioned.
2. I seriously think that St. Louis will shop this pick for multiple first rounders to a team willing to overpay for RGIII. I’m not sure they’ll find a buyer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. If not, they go for the guaranteed-to-be-good Blackmon.
3. Both Jacksonville and Carolina are looking for a big receiver to match their young QBs. I think they both want Alshon. Carolina has plenty of holes to fill should he be off the board, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes in either of these two picks (unless his combine numbers are terrible, in which case one of these two teams trades down to grab him).