Best years of your life?

Apparently these 61 guys had enough of college and were eager to enter the workforce. Some of them will be successful and some will not. I’ll take a look at this list over the next few days, but for now just wanted to put it out there since it’s a nice resource.

Aldarius Johnson, WR, Miami
Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
Alvester Alexander, RB, Wyoming
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Bernard Pierce, RB, Temple
Brandon Washington, OG, Miami
Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State
Bryce Brown, RB, Kansas State
Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
Chris Givens, WR, Wake Forest
Chris Polk, RB, Washington
Cliff Harris, CB, Oregon
Damaris Johnson, WR, Tulsa
Darrell Scott, RB, South Florida
Darron Thomas, QB, Oregon
David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama
Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
Donte-Paige Moss, DE, North Carolina
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson
Edwin Baker, RB, Michigan State
Eric Page, WR, Toledo
Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech
Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
Jewl Hampton, RB, Southern Illinois
Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
Jonathan Massaquoi, DE, Troy
Josh Robinson, CB, Central Florida
Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
Marcus Forston, DT, Miami
Matt Kalil, OT, Southern Cal
Max Holloway, DE, Boston College
Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Mike Ball, RB, Nevada
Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Nick Perry, DE, Southern Cal
Olivier Vernon, DE, Miami
Orson Charles, TE, Georgia
Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Robert Massie, OT, Ole Miss
Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State
Ronnell Lewis, LB, Oklahoma
Ronnie Hillman, RB, San Diego State
Rueben Randle, WR, LSU
Russell Sheppard, WR, LSU
Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
Terrell Manning, LB, NC State
Tommy Streeter, WR, Miami
Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State
Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois

And one early question…

What was Bryce Brown thinking? He hasn’t broken the 100 yard mark since his first game as a freshman (first game of 2009 season against Western Kentucky). And he’s only carried the ball in 12 games since then (last one was against Western Kentucky this past season). I’m not going to get into the circus that was his “recruitment” but in the end he was the number one prospect in the nation according to Rivals. He was committed to Miami up until NSD but refused to sign a letter of intent and ended up committing to Tennessee deep into March. He later quit on Tennessee amid the Lane Kiffin ouster. And after sitting out the mandatory year for transferring he quit on Kansas State for lack of playing time three games into the season. I think my youngest brother has a better chance of playing in the NFL and he hasn’t taken a meaningful snap since that football rolled off his chest during an onside kick in a peewee league (I love you man). In fact… going back to my decision not to touch on his “recruitment”… maybe he should have let Brian Butler auction him off to a CFL team since that’s the only chance he has of playing professional football in my opinion.

But I digress… next time I’ll talk about guys who have a shot in the NFL. I promise.

First look at the Top 10

Here goes nothing…

1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Yep. I know you all are surprised that I’m taking a chance with this one. But in all seriousness, Jim Irsay has already said he plans on taking Luck with this pick and I can’t think of any reason why he would say that and then not do it. As for Luck’s pros and cons… you’ve heard it all before. He’s the most polished quarterback prospect to come along since John Elway (who was also taken by the Colts before his rights were traded to Denver because he pulled an Eli).

2. St. Louis Rams – Matt Kalil, OT, Southern Cal
There has been lots of talk about the Rams unloading Sam Bradford and moving the franchise in a different direction but I just can’t see that happening. One because it’s stupid move but also because his contract all but makes that impossible. So, the next best thing is to keep him healthy which is what Kalil would assist with. Another receiving target would be a welcome addition later on as well.

3. Minnesota Vikings – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
Kalil would be nice if the Rams pass on him, but Blackmon fits in huge hole as well. The Viking offense was putrid this past season. If Ponder is going to succeed in Minnesota he is going to need some weapons in the passing game and Blackmon is a great one. Not only is he an elite receiver, but his presence will make those around him better because of the attention the defense is going to have to give him. A cornerback like Morris Claiborne could be possible as well… that is if the Vikings don’t trade out of this pick so some team can get RGIII before the Browns can get him…

4. Cleveland Browns – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
I’m not going to include trades in my mock drafts, so RGIII lands here! Colt McCoy is a great kid (and still looks like he’s 12) but he is not an NFL quarterback. Griffin reminds me a lot of a younger Donovan McNabb and I think he could succeed in the Browns offense. If some other team moves up into the third slot to grab Griffin then a corner like Claiborne could be possible as they look for a starter opposite Joe Haden. Or maybe Blackmon if he’s available.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Guess what. Aqib Talib, who had MAJOR character issues coming out of college, is going to end up going to jail. Shock. And the ageless Ronde Barber will probably end up retiring. So, this one is an absolute no-brainer for me. If Claiborne isn’t available then Dre Kirkpatrick should be the pick. In fact, I think the Bucs might consider taking another corner in the second round, that’s how much help they need in the secondary.

6. Washington Redskins – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Yeah. I really don’t expect the Redskins to be picking in this slot and if they are it’s extremely difficult to guess what they would do. Richardson has the skills to warrant this selection and he would fill a hole, as the Redskins ended the season near the bottom of the league in rushing, but would Mike Shanahan take a back in the first round? I dunno. But as I said at the beginning, I fully expect Washington to make a trade to jump up and get Griffin. If they can’t do that look for them to actively pursue Peyton Manning.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
For years the Jaguars have needed help on the defensive front and while they have addressed it from time to time, this pick is still necessary. With all the young quarterbacks in the division, the Jaguars can’t afford to not have an elite pass rusher, which is what Coples would be. He has tremendous size, great athleticism, a good motor and one of the largest brands you will ever see. Seriously… every time I look at his arm I’m amazed.

8. Carolina Panthers – Devin Still, DT, Penn State
The Panthers should be looking to pickup the best defensive player available here after finishing 24th against the pass and 25th against the rush. Still would be an immediate upgrade in the center of the defense offering a great combination of size and athleticism. While injuries have hampered his production he had a tremendous senior season with 17 TFL. A corner like Kirkpatrick could be very possible here, but I like the defensive line pick a bit more.

9. Miami Dolphins – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
Marc Colombo needs to be replaced. It’s pretty much as simple as that. The only real decision here is which tackle fits the Dolphins better, Martin or Riley Reiff (Iowa). No matter which one is selected, it will require them moving to the right side since Jake Long has a pretty good grip on the left tackle spot. Both are tremendous run blockers, but I think Martin is a little more versatile which is why I have him in this spot.

10. Buffalo Bills – Nick Perry, DE/OLB, Southern Cal
The Bills were near the bottom of the league in sacks and desperately need a spark off the edge. Perry had an outstanding end to his Junior year with the Trojans. I believe he will light it up at the Combine and ride that performance into a top 10 selection in April. He has decent size for a rush linebacker and an amazing first step. He’s still a work in progress and with some good coaching he could end up being one of the steals of the draft. Another rush linebacker like Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) could be possible as well as an offensive tackle like Reiff.

Another One Down

I can’t say I was surprised to hear Lance “Landry” Jones announce his decision to return to Oklahoma for his senior season. He hasn’t exactly had a banner year this past season and had fallen down the QB rankings a bit due mostly to inconsistency. I think there was a good chance he would have still gone in the first round after Luck and RGIII were off the board. However, it’s his decision to return to school (just like it was Matt Barkley’s) and I’m not going to say that he made the wrong choice. But I do have my doubts. If he continues his slide into inconsistency next year he could fall out of the first round entirely given the other potential members of the 2013 quarterback class… Matt Barkley (for sure), Tyler Wilson (if he doesn’t go pro this year), Tyler Bray and Aaron Murray all figure to be a part of next year’s draft. Also, he was already losing red zone touches to Oklahoma’s Tebow (Blake Bell) and that trend looks destined to continue next season.

What does that mean for this year? In my opinion (and depending on Wilson’s decision) there are only two quarterbacks guaranteed to go in the first round, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Nick Foles (Arizona) and Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) may slide into the first but they are far from locks and would be considered reaches. I still believe that Indianapolis will take Luck (the new GM, whomever he may be, will have the unenviable task of releasing Peyton). Which most likely means that either the St Louis Rams or Minnesota Vikings will be the recipient of a very nice trade as some team looks to jump over the Browns who would likely take Griffin fourth.

In the mean time… congratulations to Bob Stoops, you’ve got your senior QB back (again). And I’m sure there will be at least one more shocking return to school or out of the blue declaration in the next 10 days (underclassmen have until January 15th to declare for the NFL). Sometime after that I’ll talk about all the early entrants and shortly after that I’ll have my first mock out! Woot and stuff.

Andrew Luck Sweepstakes final update!

Well, the regular season is over. 12 teams are preparing for the playoffs and possible Super Bowl glory. Which can only mean that 20 teams (and their fans) have now turned their attention to those magical three days in late April. Yes, I am talking about the NFL Draft.

The Colts and Rams entered the day with the same record, but as I have said before, it would take the Rams losing out and the Colts winning out in order for that number 1 pick to go to St Louis. The 49ers beat up on the Rams like pretty much everyone thought they would and for a heartbeat it looked like the Colts might have a chance at defeating the Titans… but their defense couldn’t come up with a stop late in the game…

So… we have a winner in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes… I give you… the Indianapolis Colts! At one time it appeared that this would be wrapped up weeks ahead of time, but the Colts gave us a show. They now have many questions that they need to answer. Do they draft Luck and keep Manning (which would tie up a lot of money in two quarterbacks and restrict the team from competing for top players at other needed positions in free agency). Do they trade (release) Peyton Manning and hand the franchise over to Luck on Day One? Do they trade the pick to another team and focus on trying to rebuild the Colts around a quarterback that will be 36 years old when the Draft comes? I know what I would do.

And then we have the Rams with the #2 pick. They have already started cleaning house with both GM Billy Devaney and head coach Steve Spagnuolo being shown the door today. We won’t get a great idea of which direction the new regime is going to take the franchise, but new coaches usually mean new quarterbacks… and there has been a rumor going around that the Rams are thinking about shopping Sam Bradford (which, for the record, I really can’t see happening for a number of reasons). Like the Colts, this is a team with a ton of holes.

But more was decided yesterday than just the top two picks. We now know (more or less) the top 20 picks of the draft. And here it is…

2012 NFL Draft Order

1. Colts
2. Rams
3. Vikings
4. Browns
5. Buccaneers
6. Redskins
7. Jaguars
8. Panthers *
9. Dolphins *
10. Bills
11. Seahawks #
12. Chiefs #
13. Cardinals
14. Cowboys
15. Eagles
16. Jets
17. Bengals (via OAK)
18. Chargers
19. Bears
20. Titans

* – picks 8 & 9 to be decided by coin flip at NFL Scouting Combine
# – picks 11 & 12 to be decided by coin flip at NFL Scouting Combine

(Bengals received Oakland’s first round pick in Carson Palmer trade.)

Going back for more

It’s official. Matt Barkley is returning to Southern Cal for his senior season and forgoing an almost certain chance at being a top 10 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. I don’t want to spend a whole lot of time questioning his decision because it was his to make. I can tell you that if I had been in his position I would have more than likely jumped to the NFL. Was it a good business decision? Maybe. Barkley wasn’t going to be the #1 pick this year but he has a shot at it next year. He’s easily the top returning NCAA quarterback. But I do wonder if someone like Tyler Bray or Aaron Murray could challenge for the top QB slot in 2013.

Moving along… what does this mean for the 2012 Draft? The happiest man alive today has got to be Landry Jones. If he makes the decision to jump to the NFL, which still isn’t definite, he should go top 15. Robert Griffin III will also rise up draft boards, although I’m of the opinion that he had already overtaken Barkley. And while other quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) and Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) will benefit from Barkley’s decision, maybe a team that was looking at taking a quarterback early on will select an elite offensive tackle or defensive back in the first round, opting to pick up a quarterback later when the value is right.

I had a hunch that Barkley was going to return to college and I sincerely hope that it works out for him. It worked for Sam Bradford and it worked for Andrew Luck. Oh… and I’m changing my mind on something I wrote a little earlier in this post… the happiest man alive today is Robert Woods. He will likely be the top receiver taken in the 2013 Draft and with Barkley throwing him the ball again next season he should rack up the stats necessary for a top 10 pick (and millions in signing bonus money).

Luck Sweepstakes Update #3

Real quick update. If Indianapolis loses this weekend they will have the top pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. The final week won’t be relative to this discussion. Period.

If all three teams (Indianapolis, St Louis and Minnesota) finish with identical 2-14 records the Colts would still emerge victorious due to their Strength of Schedule (yes, I tried many, many different variations of the end of season to see if any results in any other games would put the Colts out of the top spot and that’s a negative). For either St Louis or Minnesota to get that top spot, they will have to lose out and Indianapolis will have to win both remaining games (Houston and @ Jacksonville). And if that did happen, the Vikings would most likely get the top pick.

Stay tuned!

Luck Sweepstakes Update #2

It’s coming down to the wire and we now only have three teams with a chance of getting that glorious first selection in the 2012 NFL Draft…

The leader is still the Indianapolis Colts (0-13), as they strive to be just the second team in NFL History to finish a season with 16 loses. This team has been so incredibly awful all season long and I have no reason to expect them to win the next three games (which is what it would take for them not to have the first pick). Since they gave up a 10 point second half lead to Kansas City back in Week 5, they have been positively horrendous. There are only two games since then that they have lost with a final score margin of less than 10 points. In fact, they have been outscored by a combined 246 – 97 points in the past 8 games alone. Clearly having Andrew Luck alone won’t fix this team, but it will be a good start. Interestingly, Archie Manning has come out and said that Peyton won’t play for the Colts if Luck is drafted. Which I find utterly hilarious. First it was Eli with San Diego back in the 2004 NFL Draft and now Peyton with Indy… Did the Manning boys run home to their father when they were young to ask him to tell all the other kids that they didn’t want to play with them anymore?

Anyways… next on the list is the St Louis Rams (2-11). The Rams would most definitely trade the first selection because of they selected Sam Bradford just a couple years ago with the first pick. This is by far my favorite scenario because we’d get to witness a bidding war for the first pick the likes of which hasn’t been seen in the past 15 to 20 years. The Rams still have to play the Bengals, Steelers and 49ers. In fact, they are the only one of the final three Luckstakes competitors that has to play three teams with winning records. I fully expect them to lose their final three games but it would still likely take Indianapolis winning out for them to get the top spot. However, if both teams finished with the same record it comes down to combined opponents’ winning percentage and if the right teams win or lose, the Rams could take the top spot… but that’s a lot of math that I simply don’t want to do at the moment. If the Rams lose this week and the Colts actually win, then I’ll think about laying out all the scenarios that it would take for the Rams to get the first pick.

Lastly we have the Minnesota Vikings (2-11). Because of the strength of the NFL North it would take 3 wins by the Colts, 1 win by the Rams and three more loses for the Vikings in order for Minnesota to come out with the First pick. This is very unlikely for a number of reasons. The Vikings still have New Orleans, Washington and Chicago on the schedule and should win at least one of those games, if not two. Like the Rams, the Vikings would likely trade the pick because of the selection of Christian Ponder last season, but they’d have to at least think about which player would give them the better chance going forward.

If either the Rams or the Vikings end up with the top selection, there’s no telling which team will move up to take Luck. At the moment, I’d have to put the Redskins, Dolphins and Chiefs at the top of that list. Two of those teams will have new head coaches (and new coaches like new quarterbacks), while one of them just simply needs a quarterback in the worst way.

If I had to predict what is going to happen… I’d say the Colts and Rams lose out with the Vikings winning in DC. The Colts take Luck with the first pick and cut Peyton Manning (trading him would be worse than keeping him in salary cap terms). The Rams take Matt Kalil to protect Sam Bradford’s blind side and the Vikings grab Justin Blackmon to fill the massive void left at receiver after Sidney Rice took his talents to Seattle. The Chiefs pick up Peyton Manning in free agency which would allow them to get a defensive player like Quinton Coples in the Draft. While the Redskins and Dolphins fight over Robert Griffin III and Matt Barkley.

Luck Sweepstakes update #1

I know there are two more games still to be played this week, but we finally have a single team atop the Andrew Luck standings. With the Dolphins fairly dominant victory over the Chiefs and the Colts pathetic performance against the Falcons, a Manning-less Indianapolis has taken that first big infamous step towards the #1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Make absolutely no mistake about it… there is still quite a bit of football to be played, so it’s not a definite that Andrew Luck will be trading casserole recipes with Peyton Manning next season. This is an “any-given Sunday” league… so technically the Colts could win a couple this season. However… I just don’t see it. Sure, they will likely get really lucky and win one game, but this team looks so completely outmatched each week that I cannot imagine them getting two victories this season. I haven’t checked but I’m certain there are Vegas odds on this topic and I’m even more certain that the Colts just became HUGE favorites.

However, just to cover my bases, I’ll talk about the other contenders… briefly…

St Louis and Arizona still have to play each other one more time this season, so one of those teams will definitely have two wins at the end of the season. They also both get the pleasure of playing the hapless Seahawks, so that could be another victory (St Louis plays Seattle twice). The Dolphins have not looked as bad as their record indicates, however the remainder of their schedule looks fairly intimidating. Still, I could see them winning a couple more (Oakland and Washington look like good matchups to me). Seattle is the only other team I’m going to mention this week even though there are four others with only two wins. Sure the Seahawks offense has been awful to say the least, but their defense has played pretty well this season. I don’t see them losing out, but if they did and the Colts managed to win two games… Pete Carroll knows exactly how good Andrew Luck is.

Watchlist (10/22/2011)

I’m going to try something new today. I’d say that it would be a weekly thing, but that would be an absolute lie at this point. I would love to be able to do nothing but write for all my two readers every single day, but I think my boss might have a problem with that. Anyways… here we go… just a couple of players I’m going to be keeping an eye on today in specific games…

Kirk Cousins (QB – Michigan State) – Cousins should be one of the top 5 QBs going into the 2012 NFL Draft and how he performs today will go a long way in proving what kind of pro he will be. The Spartans will likely be playing from behind (but more on that in a bit), so I’m looking to see what kind of composure he has as well as the leadership he brings to the field. It’s already been proven that he has the physical talents and I’ve seen evidence of the “intangibles” before as well, but this game is being played in primetime with the whole country watching.

Russell Wilson (QB – Wisconsin) – Before the season started Wilson had pretty much been written off as a future baseball player with little NFL potential. But now… he’s lighting up the scoreboards as the leader of one of the most prolific offenses in the country. He is currently the leading passer in the country as well. But today he goes up against the top pass defense in the nation as well. And the game is East Lansing at that. If he can have a productive day today then he will start to climb a bit higher up draft boards. It’s not out of the question that he could end up going in the 3rd or 4th round (which is a lot higher than anyone would have thought going into the season).

Trent Richardson (RB – Alabama) – Yeah, yeah, I know. I’ll try to give you a surprise pick in a second. But seriously, in addition to putting himself squarely into the Heisman discussion last week, Richardson pretty much cemented himself as the top RB in the 2012 NFL Draft. He’s playing at home against a questionable Tennessee team so he should have some incredible numbers. Nothing too exciting. To be honest, the only reason I’ve put him here is because everyone should keep their eyes on this kid. His long touchdown last week was really special and he could climb into the top 10 overall with another epic performance.

Ray Ray Armstrong (S – Miami) – It’s been a while since The U has been relevant in the NFL Draft, but Armstrong could change that. He may not start against Georgia Tech today, but he will certainly play. How he holds up against the triple option is going to be critical. We’ve already seen it frustrate a future top 5 pick (Quinton Coples, UNC) once this season. But Armstrong usually comes up big when you least expect it. He has wonderful ball skills and exceptional physical attributes (6’4″ and 220 lbs). If he can play smart and fast he could become a borderline 1st-2nd round pick.

Umm… hi…

So…

 

Hi.

 

This feels like the one of those times when you run into someone you haven’t seen in about 10 years after you both promised to stay in touch and inevitably didn’t.

 

I know, I know.

 

I could give you a pile of excuses if you wanted to explain my absence, but I won’t. Suffice it to say that a lot has happened in my life over the past two years, some of it not so good and some of it amazing. But I promise that I am going to try and be a better friend to all of you (I think I once had like two readers). I promise to try and stay in touch.

 

So… I’m going to leave you with a question… who is going to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes? The Colts? The Dolphins? Will Bill Belichik sell his soul to get the #1 pick? So many choices…